TITLE:Binomial P -spline Regression for Anomaly Detection
in Cohort Mortality Patterns.
We analyze longitudinal cohort mortality patterns assumed to follow a broken-line
regression model with binomial responses and an unknown set of joinpoints. We propose
herein a simple procedure for an approximate joinpoints selection and model fitting via
penalized likelihood. Whereas the method may not be as accurate as some of its more
sophisticated competitors, it is computationally efficient and seems satisfactory under many
simple change patterns with small-to-moderate sample sizes. In fact, the simulation study
indicates that in some cases the approach may be superior to traditional sequential algorithms
in identifying the correct number of change points. The estimation of the model parameters
and the selection algorithms are illustrated with data on cancer mortality in a cohort of
chemical workers analyzed already elsewhere using a joinpoint logistic regression approach.
The results of two analyses are compared.