Department of Mathematics Colloquium

Date:  Friday, November 5, 2021, 3:30 - 4:30 pm, Natural Sciences Building Room 128. Refreshments provided prior to talk at 3:00 pm.

Speaker: Dr. Julien Arino, University of Manitoba, Canada.
Title: Considerations on the spatial and temporal spread of infectious pathogens in the COVID-19 era

Abstract: The spatial and temporal spread of infectious diseases has been documented for millenia and the mechanisms leading to this spatialisation are, for the most part, well identified. However, while the "ingredients" are known, the way they interact to give rise to actual spread events remains elusive. If this needed illustrating, the ongoing COVID-19 crisis is providing a perfect example. The initial wave of spread between country-level jurisdictions was relatively well predicted. However, when focusing on a finer scale, the situation is murkier. Some relatively similar local jurisdictions saw very different outcomes; altogether, there were a myriad of spread profiles. This highlights the need to better understand the processes involved in the spatio-temporal spread of infections, in particular in the perspective of deriving or improving methods to slow or interrupt this spread. In this talk, I will focus on one critical cog: case importations. I will present data documenting the process in the context of COVID-19 as well as models that were considered to quantify the risk that importations take place. I will also discuss the role and efficacy of two types of importation control measures: travel interruptions and quarantine.

This talk will be presented in a hybrid format. If you wish to attend virtually, please contact me.